Volume No. 8 Issue No.: 2 Page No.: 316-324 Oct -Dec 2013

 

USING A FIRST ORDER MARKOV CHAIN MODEL AND SPI INDEX TO FORECASTING, MONITORING AND ZONING OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT CASE STUDY: CHAHAR MAHAL AND BAKHTIARI PROVINCE, IRAN

 

Zamani A. M. R.*1, Monadi M.2 and Zarei H. 1

1. Department of Hydrology and Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Water Science,
Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Khuzestan (IRAN)
2. Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of
Ahvaz, Khuzestan (IRAN)

 

Received on : July 10, 2013

 

ABSTRACT

 

The objective of this research was to examine and forecast the intensity, duration, frequency and extent of droughts in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari province of Iran for the 120 next months using the first order Markov chain model and the time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the three-month time scale. For this, precipitation data within the same statistical period of 30 years (1983-2012) in 1 time scales of 3 months from 12 stations located within the province were used. The results were shown that in 3months time scale, about 70 percent of the condition was normal and about 15-20 percent of the drought conditions have been occurred. Also likely of remains in the drought trap for all stations is more than 40 percent and it will be more in the South and South- East regions of the province. According to the results, the probability of transition from dry to wet conditions in the central part of the province is more than elsewhere. And droughts in the south and south-east of the province were of higher intensity and longer duration than elsewhere. According to calculated balance probability matrix the value of balance probability of drought is more than wet years in the province.

 

Keywords : Drought, Meteorological, Markov chain model, SPI Index, Balance probability matrix

 

 

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